This NFL season, I plan on using @ben_bot_baldwin 4th down decision bot to tabulate each 'incorrect' 4th down decision made by NFL teams this season. This is a topic that fascinates me because 4th down mistake are a matter of teams 'beating themselves' through being cowards and/or not believing, trusting, or investing in analytics. On fourth down teams may go for it, punt, or kick a field goal. Each decision has its own risks and benefits but with years of data available to each NFL team, properly assessing these risks is not a challenge. Nevertheless, football fans must endure countless boneheaded decisions by 'the greatest minds in football.' Let's start with Week 1 which saw 55 mistakes.
Point Differential
4th Down Mistakes are almost completely synonymous with cowardice since out of the 55 mistakes, only 1 happened when a team went for it. Nearly every mistake came from a team being too conservative -- kicking or punting when they should be keeping their offense on the field. The average point differential of the mistake team was -2.7 points so teams were not aggressive enough when trailing.
Distance to the End Zone
Teams made mistakes when they were an average of 43 yards from the end zone. Teams are making the worst choices near midfield which makes sense. This is usually a gray area with seemingly valid choices to kick a long field goal (with a greater risk of missing), go for it (with the risk of giving the opponent decent field position), or punt (putting 0 points on the board).
Quarter
19 of the 55 mistakes (35%) happened in the first quarter, implying that coaches may be opting to 'let the game play out' and trust their team to cover their weak fourth down choices.
Cumulative Leaders
Overall, the 55 mistakes accounted for 83 'win probability percentage points lost. The Cincinnati Bengals were the biggest culprit, giving away a 9.8% chance of winning on 4th down decisions alone! They only made three wrong decisions, losing them 0.5, 3.0, and 6.3 probability points (note that the bot does not do overtime analysis). Teams that made zero mistakes were the Ravens, Packers, Chargers, Dolphins, Vikings, Giants, Jets, and 49ers.
Worst Decisions of the Week
#10: Chiefs 4th & 2 from 10 yard line, down 8 in 1st Quarter
Recommendation: Go for it
Decision: 28 yard field goal (56% chance of winning to 53%)
Result: Field Goal good. Trailing by 5
Game Outcome: Chiefs won by 4
#9: Bills 4th & 5 from 19 yard line, tied in 1st Quarter
Recommendation: Go for it
Decision: 37 yard field goal (73% chance of winning to 70%)
Result: Field Goal good. Up by 3
Game Outcome: Bills lost by 7
#8: Bengals 4th & 4 from 35 yard line, up 7 with 14:18 left in 4th Quarter
Recommendation: Go for it
Decision: 53 yard field goal (79% chance of winning to 76%)
Result: Field Goal good. Up by 10
Game Outcome: Bengals won by 3 in Overtime
#6: Bills 4th & 1 from own 46 yard line, up 3 in 1st Quarter
Recommendation: Go for it
Decision: Punt to 13 yard line (76% chance of winning to 73%)
Result: Steelers drive unsuccessful. Bills receive ball at their own 23 yard line
Game Outcome: Bills lost by 7
#6: Titans 4th & 1 from 28 yard line, down 18 in 2nd Quarter
Recommendation: Go for it
Decision: 46 yard field goal (13% chance of winning to 10%)
Result: Field Goal missed. Cardinals drive ends at half
Game Outcome: Titans lost by 25
#4: Panthers 4th & 6 from 33 yard line, tied in 1st Quarter
Recommendation: Go for it
Decision: Punt to 15 yard line (64% chance of winning to 60%)
Result: Jets drive unsuccessful. Panthers receive ball at their own 15 yard line
Game Outcome: Panthers won by 5
#4: Steelers 4th & 2 from 2 yard line, down 7 in 3rd Quarter
Recommendation: Go for it
Decision: 20 yard field goal (23% chance of winning to 19%)
Result: Field Goal good. Down by 4
Game Outcome: Steelers won by 7
#3: Cowboys 4th & 3 from 3 yard line, down 5 in 3rd Quarter
Recommendation: Go for it
Decision: 21 yard field goal (24% chance of winning to 20%)
Result: Field Goal good. Down by 2
Game Outcome: Cowboys lost by 2
#2: Washington 4th & 7 from 40 yard line, down 4 with 6:52 left in 4th Quarter
Recommendation: Go for it
Decision: Punt to 18 yard line (34% chance of winning to 29%)
Result: Chargers drive until end of game
Game Outcome: Washington lost by 4
#1: Bengals 4th & 3 from 47 yard line, up 3 with 1:55 left in 4th Quarter
Recommendation: Go for it
Decision: Punt to 5 yard line (85% chance of winning to 78%)
Result: Vikings score field goal to send game to Overtime
Game outcome: Bengals won by 3 in Overtime
Comments