Building off last week's article, let's see how well NFL teams are making decisions through two weeks of the NFL season. In week 2 a total of 59 mistakes were made, almost two per team and an increase of four over week 1. 84.5% of win probability was lost which was a 2 percentage point increase but a lower win probability lost per mistake implying that week 2 had more decisions to be made than week 1. The worst culprits in Week 2 were the 49ers (who gave up a 14.2% chance of winning!!) followed by the Vikings, Eagles, Saints, and Seahawks. Interestingly, the 49ers and Vikings made entirely correct decisions in week 1. Congrats to the Bears, Cowboys, Lions, Texans, Chiefs, and Packers for making zero mistakes in Week 2!!
Week to week there was actually a negative correlation in win probability lost in week 1 vs week 2 by team. I'm guessing this will somewhat stable out in the future but with so few datapoints thus far it's hard to make too many conclusions on which teams are better than others at 4th down decision making.
The average mistake is made when the offensive team trails by 1.83 points so these teams aren't making enough of an effort to get back into the game when trailing. There were 0 mistakes in week two where a team went for it when they shouldn't have, confirming the theory that mistakes are heavily skewed to teams being more conservative than they should be.
We're seeing the bulk of mistakes happening on the opponent's side of midfield. This is where coaches are usually faced with seemingly valid options of going for it, punting, or kicking a field goal.
The overall worst offenders through two weeks are the 49ers, Vikings, and Bengals. Shoutout to the Packers who haven't made a mistake yet!! The Niners have given up 14.2% of a win through only two games, which translates to losing 2.4 games in a 17 game season on 4th down decisions alone! For San Francisco this could be the difference between making or missing the playoffs.
Five Worst Decisions in Week 2
#5: Eagles 4th & 3 from 26 yard line, tied in 1st Quarter
Recommendation: Go for it
Decision: 45 yard field goal (48% chance of winning to 45%)
Result: Field Goal good. Up by 3
Game outcome: Eagles lost by 6
#4: Steelers 4th & 1 from own 34 yard line, down 9 with 8:36 left in 4th Quarter
Recommendation: Go for it
Decision: Punt to 24 yard line (14% chance of winning to 10%)
Result: Raiders drive ended in punt. Steelers received ball at own 32 yard line with 5:51 left
Game outcomes: Steelers lost by 9
#3: Vikings 4th & 1 from own 40 yard line, down 1 in 3rd Quarter
Recommendation: Go for it
Decision: Punt to 18 yard line (38% chance of winning to 35%)
Result: Cardinals drive ended in interception. Vikings received ball at own 31 yard line
Game outcome: Vikings lost by 1
#2: 49ers 4th & 7 from 38 yard line, down 3 in 2nd Quarter
Recommendation: Go for it
Decision: Punt to 2 yard line (55% chance of winning to 50%)
Result: Eagles drive ended on downs. 49ers received ball at own 3 yard line
Game outcome: 49ers won by 6
#1: 49ers 4th & 1 from own 34 yard line, down 3 in 1st Quarter
Recommendation: Go for it
Decision: Punt to 17 yard line (51% chance of winning to 44%)
Result: Eagles drive ended with blocked Field Goal. 49ers received ball at own 27 yard line
Game outcome: 49ers won by 6
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